Posted: March 15th, 2017

In the upcoming governor’s election, the most recent poll based on 900 respondents predicts that the incumbent will be reelected with 55% of the votes. For the sake of argument, assume that 51% of the actual voters in the state support the incumbent governor (p = 0.51). Calculate the probability of observing a sample proportion of voters 0.55 or higher supporting the incumbent governor.

In the upcoming governor’s election, the most recent poll based on 900 respondents predicts that the incumbent will be reelected with 55% of the votes. For the sake of argument, assume that 51% of the actual voters in the state support the incumbent governor (p = 0.51). Calculate the probability of observing a sample proportion of voters 0.55 or higher supporting the incumbent governor.
.0166
.0247
.0082