Posted: September 10th, 2015

Political sience.

Here the case is concerned with Kurdistan region of Iraq. So, if we insist that the Kurdistan Region of Iraq should become an independent country what kind of difficulties and challenges does the region  will face?

And what is the geo – strategic effects of independent Kurdistan in the region?
The Iraqi Kurdistan is located in the Middle East, the most unstable region in the world; a strategic area surrounded by Iran, Iraq, Syria and Turkey. So, due to geopolitical and demographic situation, Kurdistan has attracted the attention of the major trans-regional powers. Because, the new nation will be closed by Turkey in the north, Iran in the East, Iraq in the south and Syria in the West, which almost none of it have desire emergence of Kurds as a nation – state independent. Therefore, Kurds at different times have denied by the governments of Turkey, Iraq and Iran and even Syria but never completely abandoned the idea of forming an independent state. For Iran changing geopolitics of the Middle East means dividing Iraq and Syria. Consequently, Iran will lose major of its influence in Iraq and Syria. In terms of geopolitics, Iraq an important country for America is divided into three parts. The US Congress Plan to divide Iraq into three ethnic regions looks more likely than ever before, while, for Iran would be a nightmare. In such a situation, Iran will seriously oppose and will try to stop Independence of Kurdistan.
If we look at the issue of independence by the Iraqi Kurdistan followed by geopolitical changes in the region, we will find out that for decades, even the idea of a Kurdish state in Iraq rejected by Turkey’s leaders. They feared that an independent Kurdistan would motivate Turkish Kurds for the separation of Turkey. But geopolitical changes in the region say that Erdogan needs Kurdish support to maintain his power for another decade after losing its influence regionally. On the other hand, the economic dependence of Iraqi Kurdistan to Turkey and the presence of Turkish companies in the Kurdish region have broken the resistance against Iraqi Kurdistan independence. Recently Kurdistan Region of Iraq signed an independent oil contracts. Despite strong opposition from central government, Kurdistan region oil shipments through the port of Ceyhan in Turkey shipped to the Black Sea and from there to the Mediterranean Sea.
In any case, a landlocked independent state will be doomed without access or the right of transit to these channels to open waters. Based on theories of international relations, a country that gives the right of transit to a landlocked country usually will impose their political demands in addition to economic benefits. Thus, Turkey will be able to transfer the right of transit that already exist, at the same time will impose their political demands on Kurdistan region and keep safe the Turkish Kurdish areas from negative effects of the formation of a Kurdish state. Agreements behind the scenes are integral part of the world of politics, diplomacy and international strategies. The Kurds might ignore because of American interest with Iran and Turkey.

From the Turkish and Iranian point of views, creation of an independent Kurdistan in the Northern Iraq will be the greatest danger for them. The dominance of the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, “Isis” in Syria and Iraq, falling off Iraqi army and the escalating risk of separating of Kurdistan made Turkey and Iran to have a vested interest in stabilizing the region. Thus, the events in Iraq are top priority for Turkey and Iran’s strategic security because they know that instability in Iraq will move the country towards division and separation. For some common interests between regional powers and world powers Kurdish independence will face a lot of challenges. For instance: The Turks will refuse to allow the United States to use Incirlik Air Base and attack ISIS in Iraq and Syria if United States accept independence.
Kurdistan will have a significant place in Turkish politics and economy, thus, a number of agreements in the field of energy and oil will be realized. Economically, now, Kurdistan Regional Government is number one trade partner of Turkey in the region. However, politically, when Kurdish forces entered Kirkuk, Turkey showed weak reaction, indeed, many observours it was Turkey’s green light to independent Kurdistan.

Balance of power in the Middle East
In the recent decades, this region and because of its geopolitical, geo-economic and geostrategic abilities at the junction of Europe, Asia and Africa has maintained its credibility and role as a strategic area in international politics. If we look at the regions geo-economic abilities represent 70 percent of the proven reserves of crude oil and 40% natural gas proved reserves are located. Here we might be able to say why the Middle East is constantly changing and evolving. Now, Middle East spends days of turmoil and confusion that makes difficult analysing it in the context of foreign policy theories or due to the acceleration of developments planned for it. These days, however, the change in the Middle East is based on changing the balance of power and geopolitics of the region. Indeed, rapid and unexpected developments in the Arab countries like Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, as well as terrorism and bloody clashes in the Middle East have changed the region to the centre of international politics and regional and trans- regional geopolitical competition.
After World War II, the bipolar system under the leadership of American liberalism and the Soviet socialism was dominated on the international system which was based on military power. Obviously, in the past decade, multipolarity became the first sign of the new geopolitical change in the Middle East when the weight of power in the Middle East formed by Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt. Classification of countries and regions around the four poles and the relationship of each of these poles with foreign powers form the political geography of the Middle East. Thus, changing in the balance of power in the Middle East occurred by changing in the position of power, position of the four poles and change in the ratio of their relations with great powers. The beginning of this change was the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in Iraq and then revolution in the Arab countries and overthrow of several powerful regional figures such as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. Moreover, there are smaller groups or movements that can change the balance of power and act like an actor. The Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) which consider itself cross-border state that should grow.
Developments in Syria and polarization in the region in support or against Syrian developments are other rings in the chain of changes in the Middle East. From a regional perspective, what is decisive for the change is the agreement between Iran and the West over Tehran’s nuclear program that is meant to start canceling the sanctions against Iran. Iran is aware that the balance of power in the Middle East is disrupted and there has been a power vacuum in the region and many players in recent years have faced problems and excluded from the role.

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