Posted: April 5th, 2015

Economics

Economics

Paper details:
1) Macro Paper comments – very important for students to work through these guidelines for Part I and II.

2) Worksheet for part II of Macro paper

3) Macro Paper Example – prior student macro paper – Use for format and organization approach

4) Other sources – Blue-Chip, Wall Street Journal, Hauser’s law

-It may be helpful to review the Wells Fargo work for your paper. Go to Webliography and the Wells Fargo link. On the right-hand side of the Wells Fargo site it says monthly report. Then go to p. 3 to locate the Wells Fargo forecast. (Do not copy the Wells Fargo outlook for your paper – or use the below link.)

https://www08.wellsfargomedia.com/downloads/pdf/com/insights/economics/monthly-outlook/Monthly_Outlook_03112015.pdf

Note that the historical percentages listed in Wells Fargo for the quarters in 2013 and 2014 are at annual rates of change. The forecast percentages in the Wells Fargo forecast for 2015 and 2016 are at annual rates. But your table also has the absolute real GDP numbers — those absolute numbers change at quarterly rates.

The easiest way to see this is to reproduce the numbers in Macro paper. PP 2-4 in the Macro paper comments explain how to do Part II. Note the table on P. 3.

Students do their forecast for the quarters of 2015 in the same method — the percentages for the quarters are at annual rates of change while the absolute real GDP numbers are at quarterly rates of change. And follow the same process for the components of real GDP. The annual absolute numbers for 2015 for GDP and its components are obtained as per the guideline on p. 3 of the Macro paper comments.

Also note the alternative forecasts in the Blue Chip and Wall Street Journal survey of economists in Doc Sharing.

Students forecast the macro numbers by quarter for 2015 and for the year 2015 in the worksheet posted in Doc Sharing. That is Part II of your Macro paper.

-Below is the link to the March 27 revised 3rd estimate of 2014 Q4 GDP. P. 6 provides the percentages for 2014 Q4 and for the year 2014. P. 8 provides the absolute numbers for 2014 Q4 and for the year 2014. Use the Billions of chained (2009) dollars column for 2014 Q4. Mike

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2015/pdf/gdp4q14_3rd.pdf

-Use available sources