Posted: January 31st, 2017

# choose a future outcome that can be expressed as a single-number probability, or likelihood.

Complete the first round of a three-round Delphi decision-making exercise.

Topic:

For the sake of simplicity, choose a future outcome that can be expressed as a single-number probability, or likelihood.  Examples include

• The likelihood that Y will win the Super Bowl / World Series / NBA Championship in 20##.

The topic should be something that both you and your exercise participants care about, and also know something about (although you need not be experts).

Participants:

You will be the coordinator.  Select three other persons as participants.  Their cooperation will be important, so be sure to choose people you can count on.  These can be either family members, close friends, or other students (although not students enrolled in this course.  They’ll be busy coordinating their own Delphi exercises.)

As closely as possible, the SLP should follow the detailed example, which is cited in the Home Page discussion.  You may copy and / or adapt verbiage from the example without citing it.  (This special dispensation is intended to help move things along.)

The SLP writeup should include

• The Letters to the Participants, explaining the project and requesting their assistance.
• The first-round responses from the participants, edited to remove identifying information (such as email addresses).
• There are no guidelines concerning length.  Write what you need to write – neither more, nor less.
• In the SLP ONLY, references and citations are NOT required.  However:  If you state a fact, express an opinion, or use a turn of phrase that isn’t your own, then you should credit the source, just like you would in everyday conversation.  (Example:  “As Rodney Dangerfield always used to say, ‘I get no respect!’ “)

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