business forecasting

business forecasting

By understanding of the value of forecasting in a business environment.
Preparing a forecast will provide you with the skills to apply quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques when required for business decision making.
The analysis of a volume of actual data will require application of a spreadsheet, supporting the value of software programs in facilitating the use of time series
data. Research using the internet will increase your knowledge of data availability for use in business forecasting.

Business Forecasting (FOR300)
Assignment 2
Australian Marriage
Due: Week 8 – Week 10
Submit: 1) Moodle Turn-it-in and 2) a hard copy to the lecturer.
Word Count: Report 1,800 – 2,000 words.
Weighting: This assignment represents 30% of your overall assessment for Business Forecasting.
Learning Outcomes: By exploring the application of business forecasts you will gain an understanding of the value of forecasting in a business environment. Preparing a forecast will provide you with the skills to apply quantitative and qualitative forecasting techniques when required for business decision making. The analysis of a volume of actual data will require application of a spreadsheet, supporting the value of software programs in facilitating the use of time series data. Research using the internet will increase your knowledge of data availability for use in business forecasting.
Task: use the data on the ‘Selected Marriage Indicators’ table from the ABS to complete this task
1. Forecast ‘Marriages Registered’ and ‘First Marriage Both Partners’. Prepare line graphs for each forecast and the actual raw data on the same axes.
2. Forecast ‘Marriage Celebrant: Ministers of Religion’ and ‘Marriage Celebrant: Civil Celebrant’. Prepare line graphs for these forecasts and the actuals on the same axes.
3. Explain by whom and for what purpose the forecasts would be used. Provide examples of decisions that would be made based on the forecasts, including the consequences of incorrect decisions.
4. Based on the uses and consequences, determine an acceptable level of accuracy for the forecasts.
5. Use graphing software to calculate the Centred Moving Average (CMA) for the ‘Marriages Registered’. Prepare a line graph showing actual data and CMA on the same graph.
6. Observe the data and graph for trends, cycles or irregularities. Include details of your observations in your report. Explain why some of these may not be apparent or exist at all.

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